Quarterly Review & Outlook-1st Quarter 2019

Just give me one extra season, so I can figure out the other four

-John Prine, “Blue Umbrella”

The S&P 500 and other major equity markets rallied back in the first quarter and are now about flat from where they were before the selloff began last October. Over this time there was little differentiation among countries, industries, or asset classes. Global markets retraced their steps as if they had lost their keys.

A curious feature of investing is that risk is inversely related to how often you check your account. Day-to-day gyrations spur anxiety, fueled by a news media that profits from chaos. The tendency is to overreact, and overtrade, because of how hard it is to sit still.

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