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Quarterly Review and Outlook – 1st Quarter 2017

An airplane by its nature wants to fly, and if not interfered with too strongly by unusual events or by a deliberately incompetent pilot, it will fly.  A helicopter does not want to fly.” ‐ Harry Reasoner, 1971, ABC Evening News

Mercifully, the U.S. economy is an airplane, not a helicopter. It is wonderfully self‐ correcting and wants to fly irrespective of pilot skill. Normal fluctuations are assigned to whoever happens to hold office at the time1, but in reality they are many years in the making and usually pass without doing lasting damage to our productive capacity.

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1 A classic of the genre is calculating market performance of Democrat versus Republican Presidents, a perfectly meaningless statistic that gets updated every election cycle.